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Prediction created on Sep 2, 2011
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1- "serve up ads relevant to exactly what you were reading at that moment" > It would mean semantic analysis on each part of the page ?!? This is already enough difficult to get a right semantic analysis on a whole page, so on one part of a page...2- "this kind of system will be used not to look at what you look at on the page, but to measure if efficiency of an ad" > If eye-tracking devices become accepted and popular, I definitely agree that this kind of technology would definitely allow us to get a precise information on ads visibility ! An ad displayed on a screen is better than an ad that is not even displayed, but this system would also take into account banner blindness with users that are used to focus only on the editorial contents...I would be really curious to look at the numbers then...Anyway, I definitely do not think that people will allow (as this cannot be anything but opt-in) to be monitored in a such way... Especially in France :)So I vote that it won't happen !
An eye-tracking device can be a webcam (is won't be as accurate as a Infra-Red eye-tracking device, but is good enough).I think in the future, we will be used to have a constantly on webcam filming our face. (for identification, better customization or state detecteion).After I think that this kind of system will be used not to look at what you look at on the page, but to measure if efficiency of an ad. If you look at it, they can charge the advertiser and display more ads of this type.
I don't think this will ever happen. It requires that all connected devices have an integrated eye-tracking system usable by each site. Not only is it a challenge technologically speaking, but people would never allow any website to spy that way on them.
Based on blog post by a creative director at Google:http://thenextweb.com/google/2011/08/31/7-tech-predictions-for-the-future-from-a-google-creative-director/"Eye-tracking to target ads: A device would track your eye movements on the screen as you used the Web, and serve up ads relevant to exactly what you were reading at that moment."
Probability over time
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